The PDA Newsletter | The 10-Year View
Why Development Isn’t Always Linear
What if your child’s most important season wasn’t the one you’re in right now… but the one they almost quit two years ago?
When you first tie up their skates, you don’t think in decades.
You think in weekends.
In practices and tournaments.
In pizza parties with the team.
6:30 AM alarms, getting them up for school, freezing as you dust off the windshield during a frigid January morning.
You watch them play mini-sticks in the basement while the Leafs play the Habs in the background.
Quietly, you wonder what could be… if things go right.
Then the seasons start to stack.
The years go by, and before you know it, your kid is all grown up…
And somewhere along the way, you start to ask yourself:
Are we on the right track?
Are we doing enough?
Are we falling behind?
You see kids being recruited early. You hear whispers about rankings. You watch others get more ice, more roles, more attention.
And suddenly, it feels like development should be a straight climb, year after year, team after team.
But that’s not how this works…
Why the Dips Matter
The strongest players don’t always glide to the top.
They hit obstacles, lose roles, plateau, and doubt themselves along the way.
And that’s totally normal…
So the season that initially appears to be a setback often builds the resilience and composure that fuel the next leap in development, even if it’s not obvious at the time.
Research confirms it.
Research in developmental psychology and motor learning shows that growth isn’t always linear, especially in youth athletes.
These tough chapters of plateau, regression, and delayed progress are not signs of failure; they’re normal, even necessary.
Studies (Ericsson et al., 1993; Côté & Vierimaa, 2014) emphasize that long-term development is shaped more by sustained effort, resilience, and autonomy than by early success.
The athletes who thrive over time are not always the most dominant early; they’re the ones who learn how to keep growing when the spotlight fades.
Similarly, USA Hockey’s ADM notes that 12U often rewards early physical growth, but once size evens out, late developers frequently catch up, and sometimes surpass their peers (ADM Kids).
And the NHL offers no better example than Tim Thomas.
Drafted in the 9th round in 1994 by Quebec, he spent nearly a decade bouncing between minor leagues in North America and Europe, long dismissed as a goalie who’d never stick in the NHL.
By the time he earned a full-time role, he was already in his 30s. Yet those years of being overlooked built the resilience, patience, and unorthodox style that became his strength.
In 2011, he backstopped the Boston Bruins to a Stanley Cup, winning the Conn Smythe and proving that the years that looked like detours were the ones that made him into the player he knew he could be.
The Long Game Doesn’t Always Look Like Progress
Here’s what the 10-Year View could look like:
Years 1-2: They’re tiny. They skate like baby deer. No one cares about stats. Just have fun and see where things go. These years are all about building the foundation of their love for the game.
Years 4-5: Travel hockey begins. They make the team, but some kids start pulling away. Yours might lag behind. Worry might creep in.
Years 6-7: They hit a wall. Lose confidence. Maybe get cut for the first time. For the first time, they might question their love for the game.
Years 8-9: They stick with it. They come back different. A little tougher, more motivated. A little clearer on who they are as a player.
Year 10: They’re smarter, steadier, more composed. Their development finally starts to take off.
And in the end, you realize: the seasons that looked like setbacks were the very ones that built the foundation for who they are both as a person and a player.
The Question Isn’t “Where Are They Now?”
Instead, It’s:
Can they keep going when it gets hard?
Can they stay in love with the game even when the game doesn’t love them back?
Can they show up when it would be easier to check out?
These aren’t skills that show up on the scoresheet.
But they’re the ones that last.
The ones that are forged during the dips, not the peaks.
And they speak volumes about who your child will become as a person.
What Parents Often Miss
When we measure progress year to year, we might be prone to start chasing fast answers…
Switching teams. Switching trainers. Overhauling schedules.
We panic when numbers dip.
When others pull ahead.
But development isn’t always about who’s ahead of the pack today.
It’s about who’s still growing when the dust settles.
Sometimes, the most talented 13-year-old is checked out by 17.
And the kid who struggled at 14?
They’re still climbing…
Because they never stopped when things got tough.
The Closing Lesson
So, what if your child’s most important season wasn’t the one you’re in right now… but the one they almost quit two years ago?
That means your job isn’t to chase perfection…
It’s to protect heir passion.
Their joy.
Their love for the game.
Help them survive the dips.
Remind them that slow isn’t bad, it’s just real.
Because if they’re still growing, still fighting, loving the game, they’re still on the right path.
And when you finally zoom out after 10 years?
You’ll see: it was never about being the best right now…
It was about becoming someone who lasts.
Actionable Advice
The best way to support a player’s long-term growth is to zoom out.
Think less about winning a season and more about building a decade.
Anchor progress to controllable inputs: effort, habits, rest, and reflection, rather than chasing outcomes that lag behind.
Reinforce growth in decisions, not just results, and protect space for unstructured play where creativity thrives.
And when the car ride home comes, keep it simple: a calm question or two that helps them reflect without pressure.
These habits make the dips survivable, and the journey sustainable.
Development isn’t measured in seasons, but in the resilience that carries them through.
Talon Mills
Up next in the PDA Newsletter
Next up in the PDA Newsletter: Titans Tournament Preview
We’ll break down the top storylines, make bold predictions, and highlight the matchups every scout and parent should have circled.
From players poised for breakout performances to the teams built for deep runs, this preview sets the stage for one of the most important weeks on the U16 calendar.
